Every community
has a shape.

The Opportunity Shape Index scores 393 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas across five dimensions using publicly available federal data. Each dimension is built from multiple inputs that are percentile-ranked across all metros, weighted, and averaged into a dimension score from 0 to 100. The composite score is the simple average of all five dimensions.

A score of 70 means the metro outperforms 70% of all U.S. metros on that dimension. Peer comparisons are calculated within population-size tiers: small metros (under 250K), mid-size (250K to 1M), and large (over 1M).

Talent Supply

Seven inputs from Census ACS (two vintages): labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, civilian employment rate, labor force disengagement rate, working-age population share, population growth, and labor-force-to-population ratio.

Pipeline Strength

Four inputs: ACS educational attainment composite (40%), IPEDS institutional completions per capita (25%), credential mix diversity via Simpson's index (15%), and CIP-to-SOC program-to-occupation alignment (20%). Sources: Census ACS, NCES IPEDS.

Wage Competitiveness

Four inputs, all adjusted for regional cost of living using BEA Regional Price Parities: median household income (20%), OES all-occupation median wage (15%), OES 25th-percentile entry-level wage (15%), and QCEW year-over-year average pay growth (20%). Sources: Census ACS, BLS OES, BLS QCEW, BEA RPP.

Employer Demand

Six inputs across two sources: QCEW employment growth (20%), establishment growth (10%), wage growth (10%), and industry diversification via HHI (15%). From OES: high-growth occupation share (15%) and professional/technical job density (10%). Sources: BLS QCEW, BLS OES.

Economic Wellbeing

Nine inputs: poverty rate (15%), renter cost burden (8%), Gini coefficient (10%), health insurance coverage (10%), homeownership rate (12%), owner cost burden (7%), no-vehicle households (8%), credential-to-poverty ratio (15%), and OES 25th-percentile wages (15%). Sources: Census ACS, BLS OES.

Archetypes

Each metro is classified into one of nine archetypes based on its dimension score pattern. The classification uses threshold-based rules that identify the most prominent imbalance or characteristic in the profile. Archetypes are descriptive categories, not evaluative judgments.

Data Sources

All data is drawn from publicly available federal sources:

• U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2020-2024 and 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates
• Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Price Parities
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2023-2024
• National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, 2023

Limitations

This index is a descriptive benchmarking tool, not a predictive model or peer-reviewed study. It is designed to surface patterns and start conversations, not to deliver definitive assessments. Different weighting choices would produce different results. We have made our methodology transparent so communities can evaluate the index on its merits and decide how to use it. The scores reflect relative positioning among U.S. metropolitan areas, not absolute judgments of community quality.